• Markets: Stocks stumbled yesterday in anticipation of today’s interest-rate decision by the Fed (more on that below). Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices remained well above $100 per barrel as Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia.

VESTED INTEREST

Illustration: Morning Brew Inc., Photos: Win McNamee/Getty Images, Artur Widak/Getty Images

Like your athletic friend on a group trip, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is likely to pitch a hike today.

Thanks to last week’s worse-than-expected inflation report and oil prices skyrocketing due to the Iran war, economists expect the Fed to hike interest rates today for the first time in three years:

• A majority of the 29 fund managers and strategists surveyed by CNBC believe at least two rate hikes over the next year are more likely than not.
• The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets hovering around a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point hike today, a jump from last week’s 70% probability.
• The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.04% yesterday, its highest level in 19 years, before closing lower. The yield is a benchmark for consumer and corporate lending, and its rise signals a likely Fed rate increase.

Where is Warsh’s head at? Despite Warsh’s quieter approach to decisions, he noted that inflation reports “do not tell me that underlying trends have improved” in a recent speech last month at the Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY. Warsh has also said he wants to take a hands-off approach to determining interest rates—the opposite of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s bond buyback flop.

The politics of monetary policy

President Trump spent the end of Jerome Powell’s eight-year tenure beefing with the former Fed chair over his reluctance to lower interest rates, eventually nominating Warsh to take his place. Kevin Hassett, the White House National Economic Council director, claimed in a TV interview this weekend that inflation was improving, but said Trump supports the Fed’s right to make an independent decision.

Bottom line: Today’s potential rate hike could create a headache for Trump and the Republican Party, as it comes just ahead of a tense midterm election, with many economic warning signs flashing red.—MM

      

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World

Tour de headlines

Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

🏛️ Kennedy Center board votes to close building. The Trump-appointed board of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts voted to shutter its main building, the Associated Press reported. The move came hours after a judge blocked the board from putting the president’s name on its building or naming its campus after him. “Simply put, Defendants cannot install memorials for President Trump or anyone or anything else at the Kennedy Center without Congress’s blessing,” the judge wrote. The board, which Trump chairs, added the president’s name to the building’s facade last year before it was ordered to be removed. It has also tried to rename the center’s campus to “The President Donald J. Trump Plaza.”

🗳️ Senate votes against advancing landmark crypto bill. In a 49–50 vote, the Senate blocked legislation to create a regulatory framework for the crypto industry. The industry-backed bill needed 60 votes to move forward, but the chamber’s Democrats said it lacked safeguards to prevent President Trump and his family from enriching themselves. Trump had agreed to part of an ethics provision to the bill, but Democrats argued it didn’t go far enough. The result is a major roadblock for the crypto industry, which had pushed for a new set of rules that could have further unlocked the digital assets’ political power.

🛰️ US military confirms it has weapons in space. For the first time, the US acknowledged that it has deployed weapons in orbit. “We are increasing readiness against existing threats, and the United States has on-orbit space control weapons capable of defending the Joint Force against hostile adversary action,” Air Force Secretary Troy E. Meink said in a speech. He did not divulge what kind of weapons they are or where they’re located. According to the New York Times, the US military has been preparing for years to counter Russia and China’s growing operations in space. The two countries reportedly have spacecraft that can threaten US satellites and ground troops.—AE

INVEST IN US NOT THE US

Valerie Macon/Getty Images

Canada is handing the world a Cheesecake Factory-thick menu with CAD$1 trillion of investment opportunities in projects across AI, natural resources and transportation. Prime Minister Mark Carney presented it yesterday to executives managing $120 trillion in assets, who gathered in Toronto for a summit aimed at courting capital for the country amid a trade war with the US.

The pitch deck

Aside from touting the nation’s trade ties, educated workers, vast natural resources, and low government debt, Canada is sweetening the deal with the investment version of maple syrup:

• Canada is expanding a tax rule allowing write-offs of depreciating assets immediately upon investment as opposed to over the years to apply to the majority of investments—lowering the tax rate from 13% to 6.4%, which is below most developed countries.
• The government simplified its notoriously byzantine project approval process.

What are some projects open to investment? A $10 billion AI data center and a $25 billion oil pipeline in Alberta, a synthetic graphite plant in Ontario that’ll supply battery makers, and a spaceport in Nova Scotia are among the planned ventures seeking cash.

Looking ahead…officials say the deals will take 12 to 18 months to materialize. Analysts note that to improve the country’s investment attractiveness, Canada’s government has to show how the enterprises can actually deliver returns.—SK

      

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OLD NEWS

Unsplash

For the first time in its history, Japan has more than 100,000 people over the age of 100—and nearly 90% of them are women. The surge of centenarians is straining the country’s resources and making the male/female ratio at senior home mixers impossibly unbalanced.

To put the official total of 107,677 into context, that’s enough 100-year-olds to nearly fill AT&T Stadium in Dallas. When paired with Japan’s record-low fertility rates, the number of centenarians—which has risen for 56 straight years—is creating a host of fiscal problems:

• Around one-third of the country’s ~120 million residents are drawing from public pensions.
• The health ministry asked for $218 billion for pensions and medical care for next year’s fiscal budget, representing about a quarter of the overall requests.
• The government estimates that it will need 2.4 million elder care workers in 2026, up from 2.1 million in 2024.

To supplement its withering workforce, Japan is recruiting care workers from abroad. After reaching 66,000 last year under a skilled-worker visa program, the government will now allow nearly three times that many under a new foreign-aid worker plan despite its usually strict immigration policies.—DL

      

Reader Poll

Sam’s stock of the week

AI fears are boosting cybersecurity stocks

Niv Bavarsky

On Wednesdays, the Brew’s Sam Klebanov highlights a fascinating stock, commodity, or other asset that’s worth your attention.

As the world ponders AI’s potential to cause civilizational collapse, Wall Street appears to think there’s only one thing to do: buy cybersecurity stocks.

Though chip stocks were kneecapped by AI leaders calling for a slowdown in model development over the weekend, cybersecurity stocks, on the other hand, surged:

• Shares of the world’s largest anti-hacking companies CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks are up 17.6% and 13.5% this week, respectively.
• That comes on top of other gains fueled by AI executives’ warnings about the ability of their products to carry out sophisticated hacks—sometimes without the knowledge of humans. The Nasdaq’s cybersecurity ETF is up 39.8% since the start of the year.

Looking ahead: Companies and governments are expected to grow cybersecurity spending from a projected $51 billion this year to $86 billion in 2027, per Gartner.—SK

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News

What else is brewing

• President Trump has made more stock trades since taking office than every member of Congress combined, according to a Bloomberg report.
• Prosecutors declined to pursue the death penalty against Nick Reiner, who is charged with the murder of his parents, Rob and Michelle Reiner.
• Kraft Heinz released three new flavors of its Philadelphia cream cheese as part of a push to reinvigorate its legacy brands.
• Amazon is reportedly in talks with the Television Academy to make Prime Video the future home of the Emmy Awards.
• Spotify said it will allow parents to remove their kids’ music from their taste profiles so that it doesn’t ruin their end-of-year Wrapped experience. Begone, “Baby Shark.”

recs

• A database of plants that are toxic to your pets.
• How to lower your risk for dementia, according to experts.
• The best meal delivery services, ranked by Wired.
• A mini e-reader designed to replace scrolling with reading.**

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Play

Word Search: The theme of this week’s puzzle is “Seen at a swimming pool.” Hey, the Northern Hemisphere has a few more days of summer, OK? Play the Word Search here.

Business school trivia

With Bloomberg publishing its annual business school rankings, name the university associated with each business school. Score 6/6 and win a free trip to Yacht Week.

1. Booth
2. Kellogg
3. Darden
4. Tuck
5. Haas
6. Sloan
7. Ross

Answer

1. University of Chicago
2. Northwestern
3. University of Virginia
4. Dartmouth
5. UC Berkeley
6. MIT
7. Michigan

Word of the Day

Today’s Word of the Day is: begone, meaning “go away.” Thanks to Andrew from Baltimore for the suggestion (and please don’t go away). Submit another Word of the Day here.